Designing an Excellence-Oriented Model for the Desirable Future of Students’ Academic Buoyancy in the 1414 Horizon
Keywords:
سرزندگی تحصیلی, آیندهپژوهی, روانشناسی مثبت¬¬نگر, سناریوپردازی, نظام آموزشی, افق 1414Abstract
Purpose: The present study aimed to design an excellence-oriented model for the desirable future of students’ academic buoyancy in the 1414 horizon using a futures studies and educational scenario-planning approach.
Methodology: This applied study employed an exploratory mixed-method design with a qualitative–quantitative/structural–qualitative sequence. The statistical population consisted of educational experts, policymakers, and futures studies specialists in Kurdistan Province. Purposeful sampling was used, and 23 experts participated in semi-structured interviews until theoretical saturation was achieved. Subsequently, a 10-member strategic panel was selected for structural analysis. Data collection instruments included a semi-structured interview guide and a MICMAC structural analysis questionnaire. Qualitative data were analyzed using Braun and Clarke’s thematic analysis method, while structural data were analyzed through MICMAC software. Finally, a 2×2 scenario matrix and conceptual synthesis were employed to formulate future scenarios and develop the final model.
Findings: The findings revealed that thematic analysis led to the extraction of 99 basic themes, 33 organizing themes, and 11 overarching themes. The most significant overarching themes included teacher professional transformation, active learner development, flexible learning systems, active pedagogy, technology-based learning, transformative assessment, supportive ecosystems, and future-oriented governance. MICMAC analysis demonstrated that the “motivational-supportive learning ecosystem,” “learning-oriented assessment,” and “active and deep pedagogy” were the main driving forces of the system. Moreover, “future-oriented educational governance” and “smart technology-based learning” emerged as the most critical strategic uncertainties. Based on these uncertainties, four future scenarios were developed: “Empowered Digital Flourishing,” “Human Transformation with Digital Opportunity Loss,” “Double Stagnation,” and “Technological Islands under Constraint.” Ultimately, the proposed excellence-oriented model was designed around five major pillars: self-directed learners, transformative teachers, dynamic learning experiences, inclusive learning ecosystems, and transformative governance and innovation.
Conclusion: The findings indicate that students’ academic buoyancy is a multidimensional and systemic phenomenon shaped by complex interactions among individual, educational, technological, and governance-related factors. Achieving a desirable educational future by the 1414 horizon requires fundamental transformation in educational systems, revision of assessment approaches, strengthening supportive school ecosystems, and expanding intelligent and participatory learning environments.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Talat Ahmadi; Yahya Yarahmadi, Rafigh Hasani (Author)
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